Forbes: On Oscar Night, the Real Winner Was Kalshi?

Original Article Title: And The Winner Is… Kalshi? Prediction Markets Soar On Oscars

Original Article Author: Jason Brett, Forbes

Original Article Translation: Saoires, Foresight News

Reality TV star Kevin O'Leary from "Shark Tank," also known as "Mr. Wonderful," walks the red carpet at the 98th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. The investor later publicly stated that he personally bet $1000 on the Kalshi platform, wagering on Timothée Chalamet to win the Oscar for Best Actor. (Image source: Getty Images)

On the evening of March 15th, local time in the U.S., the 98th Academy Awards took place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. However, outside of this grand event, there was one platform that stole the spotlight — and that was Kalshi.

While Conan O'Brien hosted the awards ceremony live on ABC and Hulu, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket had already poured over $120 million into Oscar-related event contracts. This marked the largest-ever betting frenzy on a regulated prediction market during the awards season. Driving this all was the milestone guidance and regulatory rules issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just three days prior.

Alone, Kalshi's trading volume had surpassed $58 million and was still rising in real-time during the ceremony; Polymarket contributed the remaining trading volume, pushing the total scale past $120 million. This figure is approximately 6 to 7 times Kalshi's entire trading volume from last year's awards season, representing a significant leap from 2025.

Elisabeth Diana, PR Manager at Kalshi, told me via email: "The reason the Oscars are so hot on the trading market is because it is considered the ultimate test of 'collective intelligence.'"

Many celebrities even personally participated. At the Oscars red carpet that evening, reality TV star Kevin O'Leary from "Shark Tank" — who also appeared in the movie "Don't Look Up" starring Timothée Chalamet — publicly announced that he personally bet $1000 on Kalshi, betting on Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor. This action was entirely voluntary and was not part of any commercial agreement, paid promotion, or prearrangement.

The funding flow on the Kalshi platform clearly shows a heavy prize pool concentration:

· Best Actor: Around $25 million (most competitive, also Kevin O'Leary's betted category);

· Best Picture: Around $24 million (market more bullish on "Once Again War");

· Best Director: Around $7 million;

· Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress: Each around $5 million.

This collective intelligence was fully displayed that evening, even integrating into the awards ceremony itself.

Host Conan O'Brien, in his opening monologue, deliberately joked about artificial intelligence and Timothée Chalamet's February controversial remarks on ballet and opera. This incident briefly flipped the odds for Best Actor on Kalshi until traders remembered that the Oscar voting had already closed, prompting the market to readjust.

Similar real-time price fluctuations played out in each award category, turning passive viewers into active players participating in real-time from a market perspective.

The timing of this eruption was perfect. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) staff guidance and proposed rule pre-announcement issued on March 12 provided clear federal regulatory pathways for Kalshi-type licensed platforms. Traders finally gained the long-awaited regulatory certainty and responded with record-breaking trading volumes.

Kalshi's integration with Rotten Tomatoes movie ratings, along with its user-friendly mobile app, made it easier than ever for the general public to participate. The result: Oscar night was no longer just about the red carpet and acceptance speeches; it became a regulated, data-driven event where collective intelligence collided with Hollywood glamour.

As the final few awards were revealed one by one, each envelope opening instantly affected market trends. Whether "Once Again War" swept the major awards or a dark horse emerged in the end, one thing was very clear:

The true winner of the 2026 Oscars was the compliant prediction market experiencing explosive growth.

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